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AC资本市场:美联储降息预期回归,欧元兑美元走低,美元兑日元无视日本央行言论

2024-06-17 08:06:52



美国就业数据和生产者物价指数疲弱,降息预期维持


美国上周初请失业金人数显著增加,达到242K,高于上个月的229K和预期的225K。这是去年8月以来初请失业金人数的最大增幅,进一步支持了劳动力市场状况放缓的观点。因此,美联储将从现在到年底将失业率预期提高到4%。


生产者物价指数(PPI)数据同样表现疲弱,录得-0.2%,低于预期的0.1%。美联储似乎准备在9月份开始放松货币政策并进行降息。


消息公布后,欧元/美元在1.0850枢轴点和下降趋势线交汇处遇到强阻力。价格显示出强烈看跌动能的逆转,可能很快测试100日均线(黑线)、1.06水平和较低的下降旗形趋势线以寻求潜在支撑。


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EURUSD Weekly


英镑/美元在触及200日均线(蓝线)和1.28水平后也出现了明显的看跌动能逆转。价格可能回撤至1.27和前一个柱体低点,然后很快触及1.25。


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GBPUSD Weekly


日本的政策利率和债券购买决定令市场意外


日本的政策利率保持稳定;然而,维持每月6万亿日元的债券购买量的决定令市场大感意外,因为许多人预计日本央行会减少债券购买量。日本央行行长表示可能会加息,具体决定将于下月做出。然而,市场降低了加息的可能性,并将日本10年期国债收益率下调了约3个基点。


消息公布后,美元/日元接近图表的极端高点,并从上升趋势线获得支撑。如果价格进一步上涨,可能在160水平附近遇到阻力。


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USDJPY Weekly






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