油价在上周五每桶下跌超过1美元，主要是由于美元走强及石油交易商在强劲反弹后获利了结，这也使得指标原油合约连续第三周记录上涨。然而，不论美元如何强劲，原油价格的波动始终引起市场的广泛关注。比如，上周四，由于当地一个部落抵抗一名前部长遭绑架，利比亚的几个油田关闭，同一时期，壳牌公司又暂停了尼日利亚费卡多斯原油的装载，原因是一个终端可能发生泄漏。这些事件引发了对未来几个月市场供应收紧的担忧，使得油价周线上涨近2%。然而，不论价格如何变化，始终不能掩盖一点，那就是油市的恢复升势始终在我们的期待之中。

Oil prices fell by more than $1 a barrel last Friday, mainly due to the strength of the US dollar and the profit-taking of oil traders after a strong rebound, which also made the benchmark crude oil contract rise for the third consecutive week. However, no matter how strong the dollar is, the fluctuation of crude oil price has always attracted widespread attention in the market. For example, last Thursday, several Libyan oil fields were shut down because a local tribe resisted the kidnapping of a former minister. At the same time, Shell suspended the loading of Nigerian crude oil from kardos because of a possible leak at a terminal. These events have raised concerns about the tightening of market supply in the coming months, which has caused the weekly oil price to rise by nearly 2%. However, no matter how the price changes, we can never hide one thing, that is, the recovery and upward trend of the oil market is always in our expectation.

话说回来，油价的波动与美元的走势密不可分。在市场整固头寸的周末前，美元指数从15个月的低点反弹，这使得对于持有其他货币的投资者来说，原油变得更加昂贵，从而降低了石油需求。但是，这只是一部分原因。STARTRADER星迈发布近日的数据显示，美国6月份生产者和消费者通胀数据显示价格压力减轻，这加剧了美元本周的跌势。而美联储理事沃勒则表示，他还没有准备好解除对美国通胀的警报，他倾向于今年进一步加息。所以，我们可以预见，美元的走势还将面临更多变数。

On the other hand, the fluctuation of oil prices is inseparable from the trend of the US dollar. Before the weekend of market consolidation, the US dollar index rebounded from a 15-month low, which made crude oil more expensive for investors holding other currencies, thus reducing oil demand. However, this is only part of the reason. STARTRADER Xingmai released recent data showing that the inflation data of producers and consumers in the United States in June showed that the price pressure eased, which aggravated the decline of the US dollar this week. And Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that he is not ready to lift the warning of inflation in the United States, and he prefers to raise interest rates further this year. Therefore, we can foresee that the trend of the US dollar will face more variables.

与此同时，美元走强与金价也有着密切的关系。由于美国通胀的回落，上周金价有所回落，但仍创下了4月份以来的很大单周涨幅，这更加加大了美联储本月暂停加息的预期。特别是，近期数据显示，美国6月消费者物价创下逾两年来最小同比增幅，这引发市场对美联储可能很快结束升息周期的押注。对此，STARTRADER星迈表示：“如果美联储开始表示我们不需要进一步加息，我们会看到黄金进一步上涨。”但是，如今，美国公债利益率的上涨，使得非孳息的黄金对投资者的吸引力下降，使得金价面临下跌压力。

At the same time, the strength of the dollar is also closely related to the price of gold. Due to the fall of inflation in the United States, the price of gold fell back last week, but it still hit a big weekly increase since April, which further increased the expectation that the Federal Reserve would suspend interest rate hikes this month. In particular, recent data show that consumer prices in the United States hit the smallest year-on-year increase in June for more than two years, which triggered market bets that the Fed may soon end its interest rate hike cycle. In this regard, STARTRADER Xingmai said: "If the Fed starts to say that we don't need to raise interest rates further, we will see gold rise further." However, nowadays, the rising interest rate of American public debt makes non-fruited gold less attractive to investors, which puts the price of gold under downward pressure.

那么，面对这些变化，我们该怎么应对呢？STARTRADER星迈认为，“我们可能会看到美元短期内略微走强，但7月26日（美联储会议日期），美联储能否让交易商相信将再升息两次，而不是一次，还有待观察。”所以，我们必须以平和的心态，等待美联储的近期决策，同时，也要密切关注G20财长和央行行长会议的相关动态。

So, how should we deal with these changes? STARTRADER Xingmai believes that "we may see a slight strengthening of the US dollar in the short term, but it remains to be seen whether the Fed can convince traders that it will raise interest rates twice instead of once on July 26 (the date of the Fed meeting)." Therefore, we must wait for the Fed's recent decision with a calm mind, and at the same time, we should pay close attention to the relevant developments of the G20 finance ministers and central bank governors' meeting.