MyFxtops迈投金融衍生品跟单：股市回升，试图摆脱冠状病毒疫情影响；恐慌结束了吗？

MyFxtops迈投（http://www.myfxtops.com/zh）金融衍生品跟单社区：恐慌似乎已经过去。美国股市重返历史高点，美国国债收益率上升，金价下滑，亚洲和欧洲股市自上周的跌势中回升。

过去几天投资者情绪变化可能有多种原因。最新的经济数据显示全球制造业和服务业活动正在好转，尤其是美国。如果中国市场出现大规模崩盘，中国国有企业可能会入市购买股票，从而阻止大型投资者抛售。不过，市场对央行和政府准备放松货币和财政政策的预期对最近风险资产的飙升推动力最大。中国央行已经向金融系统注入了数十亿美元，泰国央行周三宣布降息，是第一个为应对病毒爆发实施降息的央行。

中国昨晚宣布将把1700多种美国商品的关税减半，这是推动今日亚洲股市走高的最新因素。这是否会转化为“第二阶段”的美中贸易协议仍有待观察。不过，此举足以提振投资者信心。

尽管有以上利好因素，金融市场风险依然很高。我们仍然不知道冠状病毒爆发对中国或全球经济的确切影响。

尽管美国10年期国债收益率在触及1.5%后过去3天飙升了17个基点，但仍远低于年初的水平。债券投资者需要看到明确的证据表明最糟糕的时期已经过去，然后才开始预测更高的经济增长速度，显然目前情况还不是如此。铜是经济周期的另一个领先指标，铜价目前仍比1月中旬的水平低10%。这些资产类别需要呈现显著复苏才能反映出真正的乐观情绪，否则的话，预计股市还会受到进一步冲击。

此外，周三公布的小非农ADP就业数据表现向好，这进一步提振市场信心。美国1月ADP就业人口增加29.1万，远超市场预期的增加15.6万，前值修正为增加19.9万，初值增加20.2万。1月的就业增长为自2015年5月以来最大。与此同时，美国服务业活动上个月有所回升，新订单增加。美国供应管理协会(ISM)非制造业指数上月升至55.5，为8月以来最高。

另外，周三美国商务部公布的数据显示，美国12月贸易赤字489亿美元；预期赤字482亿美元。有评论指出，2019年，美国贸易赤字6年来首次下降。尽管消费者支出放缓，但帮助美国经济在第四季度继续温和增长。

受系列数据表现强劲的提振，美元指数隔夜短线爆发，一举冲破98关口，最高上探98.33水平。周四亚市早盘，美指继续徘徊在98.30附近。

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MyFxtops Forex Social Trading（http://www.myfxtops.com/en/）：The panic seems to be over. US stocks are back to record highs, Treasury yields have risen, Gold has sold off and equities across Asian and European markets are recovering from last week’s sell-off.

Interestingly though, no vaccine for the coronavirus which triggered the sell-off has been discovered yet, with the death toll jumping to 563 as of Wednesday night. Infections also continue to be on the rise with 2,987 new confirmed cases. So what is driving risk assets?

Multiple factors may have been attributed to the change in investors' mood over the past couple of days. The latest economic data has highlighted a pick-up in global manufacturing and services activity, particularly in the US. State-owned Chinese companies are likely to intervene through buying stocks if markets experience a massive meltdown, hence preventing big investors from selling their holdings. But it is the expectation that central banks and governments are ready to ease monetary and fiscal policies which is contributing the most to the latest surge in risk assets. The People’s Bank of China has already pumped billions of Dollars into the financial system and Thailand’s central bank was the first to cut interest rates on Wednesday in response to the virus outbreak.

China’s announcement overnight that it would halve tariffs on more than 1,700 US products was the latest factor that pushed equities higher in the Asian session today. Whether this will translate into a “phase two” US-China trade agreement remains to be seen. However, this action was sufficient enough to lift investors' sentiment.

Despite all the positivity seen in financial markets, risks remain high. We still do not know the exact impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the Chinese or global economy. If China’s growth drops by 1-2%, the shock will ripple globally and will definitely be reflected in corporate earnings. 

While the yield on US 10-year Treasury Bonds has surged 17 basis points over the past three days after touching 1.5%, it is still well below where it started the year. Bond investors require clear evidence that the worst is behind us to begin forecasting higher growth and it’s clear we’re not there yet. Copper is another leading indicator of the economic cycle and it remains 10% below mid-January levels. These asset classes need to see a significant recovery to reflect true optimism, otherwise we would expect to see further shocks to equity prices.

MyFxtops Forex Social Trading（http://www.myfxtops.com/en）