周五凌晨,美国三大股指涨跌不一,其中道琼斯平均工业指数大涨520.47点(+1.47%)、标普500指数上涨0.38%,而纳斯达克100指数则下跌0.23%。推动道指大涨的,一部分是继续降温的通胀数据,另一方面则是本次财报季中表现优越的企业,包括Salesforce,其股价在盘间大涨9%。
NAS100Roll 1d
截至本交易日,美国股市已经连续录得大涨,其中道指在本月录得了8%的惊人涨幅,成为了自2022年10月以来的最佳月度表现,相比之下,标普500指数和纳斯达克100指数在11月则分别录得9%和10.7%的涨幅,也都是2022年7月以来的最佳表现。
数据方面,在本交易日凌晨公布的PCE指数符合预期,所以市场并没有出现过度反应。在数据出炉后,美联储董事威廉姆斯的发言也显得较为中立,他表示,以目前的情况来判断,美联储的利率已经非常接近,或者已经达到峰值,但是如果未来通胀不再降温,那就不能排除继续加息的可能性。
EURUSD 1h
威廉姆斯的发言也带动美元出现了小幅反弹,其中欧元兑美元(EURUSD)在昨天晚间的欧洲通胀数据大幅低于预期之后,出现了加息下跌,目前已经非常接近23.6%斐波那契回调线(1.08770)。
考虑到美联储主席鲍威尔将在明天凌晨发言,我们预计美元的波动性将相应增加,如果鲍威尔发言较为鹰派,那么美元货币对或将继续迎来上行动能。
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