Market Inventory

On Friday (December 2, Beijing time), during the Asian European session, spot gold fell slightly in shock. At present, it is trading near 1798.88. On the one hand, the dollar index has gained some support near the low point in the past five months and rebounded slightly, putting pressure on the gold price. On the other hand, the resistance of gold price near the August high of 1807.72 was strong, the short-term increase was too large, and there was a need for adjustment. Some bulls took profits before the release of non-agricultural data, which also put pressure on gold price.

However, overnight US PCE data showed that inflation slowed down, echoing Fed Chairman Powell's statement that he was slowing down the pace of interest rate increase, and the market's expectation that the inflection point of the Fed's interest rate increase had arrived was further strengthened. This week's ADP and other data suggested that the non farm sector in the United States may not perform well in November, and the market expectation is also relatively poor. The fundamentals are biased towards bulls. After the gold price broke the resistance around the November high of 1786.36 overnight, the technical bullish signal was further strengthened. The future market of gold price is biased towards bulls, and the short-term trend is biased towards continuation of the upward trend or high shock. 

It should be reminded that, because the current market has partially digested the expectation of poor performance of non farm products, relatively speaking, the further negative impact of the non farm products data in the evening may be limited. If the non farm products data are unexpectedly stronger than the market expectation (as was the case in the past seven months), it is necessary to guard against short selling. Moreover, the daily level also sent a signal of deviation from the top, and the gold price was suppressed by strong resistance. In addition, investors also need to pay attention to the Fed officials' speeches and the relevant news of the geographical situation.

Mohicans Markets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on December 2, 2022 Beijing time. 

Technical Analysis

Change of CME Group's option layout (futures price in February):

1850 Bullish increased significantly, bearish unchanged, long target

1825 Bullish increased significantly, bearish increased, long target

1810-1815 Bullish increased, bearish increased significantly, resistance zone

1800 Bullish increased significantly, but the stock was huge, bearish increased, support level

1790 Bullish slightly decreased, bearish significantly increased, short target

1775-1780 Bullish increased, bearish increased, support zone

Order flow key point marking (spot price):

1831 long and short target

18147 Monthly high point, pay attention to resistance

1807 The breakthrough forms the head shoulder base, the center of fluctuation since the epidemic, and the key resistance area

1794 Short-term support, holding represents still rising momentum

1783-1785 Key support level, long short boundary, falling below the risk of alert deep callback

Support within 1774 days

1766 Key support

1747-1740 The low end of the fluctuation range, Powell's speech up position, key support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 2. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

Change in the option layout of CME Group

23 Bullish decreased significantly, but the stock was huge, and bearish increased slightly, bullish targets

22.75 Bullish increased significantly, bearish remained unchanged, support level

22.65 Bullish increased, bearish increased, long short competition, key support

22.50 Bullish decreased, bearish increased, short target

22.15-22.25 Bullish slightly increased, bearish sharply increased, short target

22 Bullish declined but huge stock, bearish increased, support level

Order flow key point marking (spot price):

23 Resistance level

22.75 Short-line resistance

22.52 Short-line support

22.4 Short term key support

22.15-22.20 Support area

21.8-21.9 Resistance become support

21.55 Key support for rally, the first defensive position for bulls

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 2. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.

CME Group options layout changes (January Futures Price)：

85 Bullish decreased significantly and the stock was large, bearish decreased slightly, resistance level

84 Bullish decreased significantly, bearish decreased, resistance level

82-83 Bullish decreased significantly, bearish increased significantly, key resistance range

80 Bullish decreased, bearish increase and the stock was large, short target and support

75 Bullish increased, bearish increased significantly and the stock was large, medium-term short target

Order flow key point marking (January Futures Price)：

85-86 Key Resistance Area

83.1-83.3 Key resistance during the day

82.4 Resistance

81.8 First resistance during the day, Asian and European markets can focus on here first

80-80.5 Multiple retracement, key support area

79-78.7 Volume breakout resistance and starting point and then turned into support

77-77.2 Strong support area, the U.S. market rebounded after a quick test

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 2. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. 

Today’s CME Group data:

1.07 Bullish increased slightly and the stock was large, bearish unchanged,next long target

1.06 Bullish decreased but the stock was large, bearish increased, long target and resistance

1.055 Bullish increased significantly, bearish increased, rebound target and resistance

1.05 Bullish decreased significantly but the stock was large, bearish increased significantly, fallback target

1.045 Bullish decreased slightly, bearish increased, next fallback target

1.04 Bullish increased, bearish increased and the stock was large, short target

1.0325 Bullish unchanged, bearish increased significantly, next short target

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 2. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. 

Today’s CME Group data:

1.24 Bullish decreased, bearish unchanged, long target and resistance

1.235 Bullish decreased slightly, bearish unchanged, next resistance

1.23 Bullish increased slightly, bearish increased, rebound target and resistance

1.225 Bullish increased slightly, bearish increased, resistance

1.22-1.222 Bullish increased, bearish increased significantly, long short for position

1.215 Bullish decreased slightly, bearish increased significantly, fallback target

1.21 Bullish unchanged but the stock was large, bearish increased, short target and support

Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on December 2. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time. 

Statement | Disclaimer

Disclaimer: The information contained in this material is for general consultation only. It does not take into account your investment objectives, financial situation or special needs. We have made every effort to ensure the accuracy of the information as of the date of publication. MHMarkets makes no warranty or representation on this material. The examples in this material are for illustrative purposes only. To the extent permitted by law, MHMarkets and its employees shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from any information provided or omitted in this material in any way (including negligence). The characteristics of MHMarkets' products, including applicable fees and charges, are outlined in the product disclosure statement provided on MHMarkets' website. Derivatives may be risky; The loss may exceed your initial payment. MHMarkets recommends that you seek independent advice.

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