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美国大选风险警示

2016-11-08 11:11:33

Dear Trader,尊敬的交易者,

The US election is set to begin tomorrow, Tuesday the 8th November. This is the most important market event since Brexit and the potential impact on markets is significant.

美国大选将于11月8日开始。这是继英国退欧后最为重要的市场事件,对市场的潜在影响将尤为显著。

The consensus普遍舆论

A Clinton win means certainty and generally a risk on attitude in markets, equities higher, USD stronger and a rate rise in December, i.e. the status quo continues..

如果希拉里.克林顿赢得大选将意味着市场存在一定确定性和一般风险,股市走高,美元走强,12月美国可能加息,即维持现状。A Trump win will mean uncertainty and a risk off attitude in markets, higher volatility, equities lower, USD weaker anda temporary hold on future rate rises in the US.

如果特朗普赢得大选将意味着市场充满了不确定性和风险,更高的市场波动,股市走低,美元走弱以及美国可能暂停加息。

Voting and results schedule (platform time GMT 2)

投票和结果公布时间安排(平台时间 GMT 2)

Tuesday 8th November 

11月8日 星期二07:00 – 

Voting begins 07:00 – 投票开始

13:00 – The majority of polls are open across the US

 13:00 – 美国大部分投票结果公布

23:00 – Results from exit polls are released and early predictions made 

23:00 – 选后民意调查结果公布,初步预测大选结果

Wednesday 9th November 11月9日 星期三

00:00 – Results coming in state by state 

00:00 – 公布各州投票结果

03:00 – Suspense building..! 03:00 – 悬念继续!

 06:00 – This is the likely earliest time for a winner to be announced 06:00 – 宣布美国新任总统 

How to prepare如何应对市场风险?

Clients are advised to use extreme caution for the duration of the US election. The election has the potential for high volatility as the market prices in the results throughout the day.

建议客户在美国大选期间更要谨慎交易。大选全天的结果都有可能造成市场价格的大幅波动。

Increase capitalisation – Top up your funds in case margins are increased on products that you are trading and to prepare for the higher volatility.

提高账户可用资金—入金充足以防交易产品保证金提高,并可应对市场价格的大幅波动。

Decrease exposure – Periods of heightened volatility demand lower exposure. Lower exposure will allow positions to move more out of the money without exceeding your defined risk limits. Also consider further limiting exposure to or ceasing trading on products that will be most affected by the election.

降低风险敞口—较强市场波动时期要求降低风险暴露(降低持仓)。较低的仓位可以使您的资金亏损幅度不会超过您定义的风险额度。如果想要进一步降低风险暴露,可以暂停交易受大选影响最大的交易产品。

Use stop losses and wider stops – Using stops in the markets has never been more crucial. Unexpected moves are likely during the election, so make sure to protect positions with fixed stop losses.

使用止损并设置较宽的止损—在市场交易中使用止损非常关键。尤其是在可能出现较大市场波动的大选期间,因此请确认仓位设置了固定止损以保证仓位免于重大损失。(请了解,由于流动性原因,止损并不能完全锁定风险,可能会由于行情走势造成过大滑点。)

Hedged accounts – Traders who have hedged positions (long and short the same product) should be wary that wide spreads may result in a margin call and or stop out

锁仓—持有锁仓的客户(同时持有某一种产品的空单和多单)应该明白点差扩大可能造成保证金预警或者爆仓。具体细节参考:http://www.icmarketsasia.com/html/Risk_Declaration/Risk_Declaration_688.html

【因此如果锁仓需要将账户完全对锁,且不留有任何即便锁仓也占用保证金的产品(如黄金)(确保预付款为0)。同时为了避免止盈止损的执行使得账户失去完全对锁功能,建议锁仓时尽量不要设置止盈止损,除非您拥有充足的可用保证金。 

建议在此期间暂停交易,如果一定要交易,请在交易前查看风险声明,以确定您在交易中能正确的理解各项订单执行的结果。风险声明:http://www.icmarketsasia.com/html/icmarkets/youmustknow/Risk_Declaration/

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