【首席分析师】英镑空头暂歇 静候英国PMI数据指引

英镑/美元于100日均线1.2413上方整理，目前基本延续自1.2553高点以来的2日下行趋势，汇价尝试反弹，但目前一直受限，依旧维持下行风险。英镑等待稍晚将公布的英国3月服务业PMI数据，以寻求新的信号指引。

图形上看，英镑/美元近期主要受消极基调主导，如果本次英国服务业PMI令市场失望，则消极偏好将加强。这可能导致汇价最终跌破100日均线1.2413，并可能重探下一支撑位1.2360（日图基准线），和1.2345（日图云区底部），跌破这些支撑将引发更强劲的看跌信号。

上行方面，英镑/美元关键阻力位于1.2494/97（日图基准线/云区顶部），只有当汇价有效突破该区域，方能威胁到下行趋势。

此外，英镑/美元日图云区正逐步收窄，且逐步走低的高点持续承压。

阻力位：1.2446；1.2494；1.2529；1.2553

支撑位：1.2413；1.2390；1.2374；1.2360

GBPUSD

Cable is consolidating above 100SMA (1.2413) which so far contained strong two-day fall from 1.2553 high.Recovery attempts were so far limited, keeping the downside at risk, as the pair is awaiting UK Services PMI data for fresh signals.Negative tone is prevailing on near-term studies and could be boosted if UK data disappoint.This could result in final break below 100SMA and attack at next supports at 1.2360 (daily Kijun-sen) and 1.2345 (daily cloud base), loss of which would generate strong bearish signals.At the upside, key barriers lay at 1.2494/97 (daily Kijun-sen / Ichimoku cloud top) and only sustained break above would sideline downside threats.Daily cloud is narrowing and lowering tops continue to weigh.

Res: 1.2446; 1.2494; 1.2529; 1.2553Sup: 1.2413; 1.2390; 1.2374; 1.2360