【首席分析师】英国脱欧第一天，英镑兑美元尚未明确走向

英国脱欧第一天，英镑兑美元尚未明确走向

伴随着周三震荡的走势，英镑兑美元在周四早些时候保持在强力支撑1.2420/14（斐波那契比率38.2%1.2107/1.2613/100sma）。

周三英镑兑美元在100点的范围浮动（1.2474/1.2374），英国脱欧程序的开始让交易者表示紧张，但是长脚每日K线标志着强烈的犹豫，并未表明走向。

重新回升到1.2420/13轴心点以上稍微缓解了下行压力，但是由于英镑兑美元处于每日云数据（1.2356/1.2473之间）之中，新一轮走软的风险依然存在。

混杂的每日技术研究需要货币对突破任何一方的轴心点来表明走势方向。

积极方面来看，受转换线加强，每日云顶部达到1.2473，标志着第一个上行的触发器。若延伸突破1.2500（每小时Ichimoku日本云数据顶部，限制近期的行动），这将会标志着更强的上升信号。

消极方面来看，失守1.2420/13轴心点会有风险触发新一步走软，走向一个更低的触发器1.2360/56（日基准线／云底部），会标志着走软的持续并且会突破新低。

阻力：1.2466;1.2473; 1.2500; 1.2522

支撑：1.2414;1.2395; 1.2356; 1.2338

GBPUSD without clear direction on the first day of Brexit

GBP/USD

Cable is holding above strong supports at 1.2420/14 (Fibo 38.2% of 1.2107/1.2613 / 100SMA) in early Thursday’s trading, following choppy action on Wednesday.Uncertainty at the beginning of Brexit process kept traders nervous, with the pair trading within 100-pips range on Wednesday (1.2474/1.2374), but long-legged daily candle signaled strong indecision and no clear direction.Return above 1.2420/13 pivots slightly eased downside pressure, but risk of fresh weakness exists, as the pair broke into daily cloud (spanned between 1.2356 and 1.2473).Mixed daily technical studies require break of pivotal points on either side to for clearer direction signal.At the upside, daily cloud top at 1.2473, reinforced by Tenkan-sen line, marks the first upper trigger, with extension above 1.2500 (top of hourly Ichimoku cloud that caps near-term action) needed to signal stronger upside attempts.On the downside, loss of 1.2420/13 pivots would risk fresh weakness towards lower triggers at 1.2360/56 (daily Kijun-sen / cloud base) and signal bearish continuation on firm break lower.

Res: 1.2466; 1.2473; 1.2500; 1.2522Sup: 1.2414; 1.2395; 1.2356; 1.2338