【首席分析师】美元兑日元－新一轮熊市之前在110.00以上的整合；每日云顶部被限制

受到日基准线（昨日最低点为110.09）的加强，美元兑日元在110.00的心理支撑前显示出了犹豫，随后反弹离开长尾的每日K线。

由于恢复到目前为止并没有显示出更强的上升迹象，周一收盘低于每星期的云顶部（111.36），维持了消极的态势。

然而，每日图表上的慢速随机信号显示出了延伸的整合，在新一轮熊市到来之前会被限制在每周云顶部之下。

最终跌破110.00会暴露出在109.50/00的支撑，并且可能在更强的下跌加速度中在向200sma（108.25）延伸。

每日移动平均线处于坚定的下行状态，并与以上观点一致。

若要改变现在下行的态势，需要收盘于每周云顶部之上来标志延伸的修正，并且伴随着112.15（斐波那契比率38.2%115.49/110.09）处的上升分界点。

阻力位：110.81;111.00; 111.36; 111.60

支撑位：110.50;110.00; 109.50; 109.00

USDJPY – consolidation above 110.00 to precede fresh bears; weekly cloud top caps

USDJPY

The pair shows hesitation at psychological 110.00 support, reinforced by daily Kijun-sen line (yesterday’s low was at 110.09), as subsequent bounce left long-tailed daily candle.

Monday’s close below weekly cloud top (111.36) is maintaining negative tone, as recovery attempts so far did not show stronger upside action.

However, reversal of slow stochastic on daily chart suggests extended consolidation, which should be capped under weekly cloud top, before bears resume.

Final break below 110.00 handle would expose supports at 109.50/00 and could extend towards 200SMA (108.25) on stronger bearish acceleration.

Daily MA’s in firm bearish setup support the notion.

Alternative scenario requires close above weekly cloud top to signal extended correction, with upper breakpoint at 112.15 (Fibo 38.2% of 115.49/110.09).

Res: 110.81; 111.00; 111.36; 111.60Sup: 110.50; 110.00; 109.50; 109.00