【首席分析师】欧元兑美元EURUSD；黄金Gold

欧元兑美元－200sma障碍受到强大上升加速的压力

在特朗普的医疗改革失败之后，焦点转向减税和支出等经济计划，美元受到了政治风险的冲击。相比之下，周一欧元处于强烈的看涨加速度。

周一欧元兑美元跳空高开，随后紧接着的反弹迫近1.0872/79（12月8日上升最高点／200sma）的目标。

最近市场处于对美元的悲观情绪中，而且普遍认为极右派反欧盟候选人会在法国总统选举中被击败。由于欧元兑美元连续四周在看涨的模式下闭市，强烈的看涨势头可能会推高价格。

由于最近的研究处于强烈的超买，价格走势可能在200sma处显示犹豫。然而逢低买入的策略仍受青睐。

受到每周基准线的加强，周最低值为1.0821，需要包含下降才能保持今天的缺口完好。

持续突破200sma会触发1.1000的心理障碍以及1.1067（每周云顶部）的延伸。

相反，失守1.0820/00的区域可能会引发更深的回落，并暴露出下一个轴心点1.0759（周五最低）和1.0736（日转换线）。

阻力：1.0879;1.0931; 1.0950; 1.1000

支撑：1.0837;1.0821; 1.0800; 1.0759

GOLD – fresh rally approaches 200SMA

EURUSD

The Euro is in strong bullish acceleration on Monday as the dollar was hit by increased political risk concerns after Trump’s efforts to reform healthcare failed and focus turned towards economic plans for tax cuts and spending.The pair opened with gap-higher on Monday and subsequent rally is pressuring targets at 1.0872 / 79 (08 Dec spike high / 200SMA).Strong bullish momentum is likely to drive the price higher, as the pair closed for the fourth straight week in strong bullish mode, amid dollar-negative sentiments and growing hopes that far-right anti-EU candidate will be defeated in French presidential elections.Price action may show hesitation at 200SMA barrier, as near-term studies are strongly overbought, however, dip-buying strategy remains favored.Session low at 1.0821, reinforced by broken weekly Kijun-sen, is required to contain dips to keep today’s gap intact.Sustained break above 200SMA would unlock psychological 1.1000 barrier and 1.1067 (weekly cloud base) in extension.Conversely, loss of 1.0820/00 zone would risk deeper pullback and expose next pivots at 1.0759 (Friday’s low) and 1.0736 (daily Tenkan-sen).

Res: 1.0879; 1.0931; 1.0950; 1.1000Sup: 1.0837; 1.0821; 1.0800; 1.0759

黄金－最新反弹接近200sma

在新一轮美元走软和上升的美国政治不稳定性的影响之下，周一的强大加速使黄金接近200sma障碍（1259美元）。

过去三天的拥堵在K线和超买慢速随机上产生了消极信号，而新一轮的反弹结束了这一拥堵情况。

在1259美元和1263美元（2月27日最高点）处的目标是近期的焦点，更高的突破可能驱使黄金价格走向1278美元（斐波那契比率61.8%1375/1122美元下行）。

每日图表的技术研究坚定看涨，并支持进一步上涨。然而价格可能会在关键的1257/63美元障碍出显示迟疑。

和预期中的一样，周五的最低点1240美元包含了下跌，并且守住了处于下方的移动平均线的支撑。

阻力：1257;1263; 1270; 1278

支撑：1253;1244; 1240; 1234

GOLD – fresh rally approaches 200SMA

GOLD

Spot Gold approached 200SMA barrier ($1259) on Monday’s strong acceleration, driven by fresh weakness of the dollar and rising political uncertainty in the US.

Fresh rally ended congestion of past three days that was generating negative signals on candlesticks and overbought slow stochastic.

Targets at $1259 and $1263 (27 Feb high) are in near-term focus and break higher could drive Gold price towards $1278 (Fibo 61.8% of $1375/$1122 descend).

Technical studies on daily chart are firmly bullish and supportive for further gains, however, the price may show hesitation at key $1257/63 barriers.

Friday’s low at $1240 is seen ideally containing dips and guarding cluster of MA supports that lay below.

Res: 1257; 1263; 1270; 1278Sup: 1253; 1244; 1240; 1234