【汇谈】本周汇市要点
本周汇市要点
周四的欧洲央行行政会议和周五的美国非农数据是本周的重要事件。
在周二英国上议院开始了最终的脱欧条件谈判之后，交易员将焦点转向本周的下一个大事件。
周四欧洲央行举行了其行政会议，但这不太可能标志着短期内会改变其长期超低货币政策。预期欧洲央行最早的行动会在2017年底至2018年初期间。
在央行预示着他们会在2017年间逐步放缓计划后，交易员会关注欧洲央行对于延伸至2017年的量化宽松政策的评论，以及在之后的三到六个月中期待不变的计划。
二月份，欧元区的通货膨胀达2%，这表明欧元区经济正在复苏。
另一方面，单一货币的压力堆积在了即将的荷兰大选，并为法国大选增加了风险。
美国非农数据在周五13:30GMT发布，并将被密切关注。在上周五，美联储主席叶伦发表演讲表示可能的利率上调将就劳动力市场和通货膨胀的情况而定。
如果数据低于二月的预期，平均收入又差强人意，那可能会减少预期的升息。
相反，总体来说可靠的美国就业数据会被视为额外支持美联储进行下一步行动，在2017年3月14日－15日进行下一个会议。
预计表示二月非农就业人口上升190k人，而一月的数据增长270k人。
在上个月，预计的增长0.3%而实际仅增长0.1%之后，预期二月平均时薪增长0.3%。
在上月失业率到达4.8%之后，二月的美国失业率预期有望重回4.7%。
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European Central Bank policy meeting onThursday and US Non-Farm payrolls on Friday are the top events of this week.
After UK’s House of Lords started meetingon Tuesday on final negotiations about conditions of starting official divorceprocess of the United Kingdom from the Euro bloc, traders turn their focustowards next key events this week.
European Central Bank is holding its policymeeting on Thursday and is not likely to signal a shift from its long-lastingultra-low monetary policy for some time. The earliest expected action of theCentral Bank is seen towards the end of 2017 and beginning of 2018.
Traders will be looking ECB’s commentsabout QE program that was extended in 2017 and expectations are for unchangedprogram for next 3-6 months, after the Central Bank signaled that it may taperit sometime in 2017.
Inflation in the Eurozone hit 2% inFebruary and signaling that the bloc’s economy is in recovery path.
On the other side, pressure on the singlecurrency is mounting on coming elections in Netherlands and increasing riskahead of elections in France.
US Non Farm payrolls are due on Friday at13:30 GMT and will be closely watched after Fed Chair Janet Yellen stated inher speech last Friday that decision on possible rate hike will be dependent onsituation in the labor market and inflation.
In case payrolls came below expectations inFebruary and average earnings disappoint again this could trim down expectationsof rate hike.
Conversely, overall solid US jobs datawould be seen as additional support for Fed’s decision of acting in its nextmeeting on 14-15 March 2017.
Forecasts show Non-farm payrolls rising by190K in February, compared to January’s upside surprise at 227K.
Average hourly earnings are expected torise by 0.3% in February after falling below expectations in the previous monthon 0.1% vs expected increase by 0.3%.
US Unemployment rate is expected to returnto 4.7% in February after ticking to 4.8% previous month.
