AC资本市场：9月降息概率激增，美股再创新高

周一凌晨，美国股市继续在“魔力7月”的利好笼罩下上涨，其中标普500指数（SPX500）和纳斯达克100指数（NAS100）再次创下新高，而周三和周四两天，或许将为这场疯狂的牛市注入更多动能：美联储主席鲍威尔将在国会发表陈词，目前美债收益率已经出现明显回落，这是市场为9月降息提前布局的重要信号。

另外，如果在周四公布的美国6月通胀数据按照预期降温，那么市场将极有可能再次迎来一轮全新的利好。数据显示，标普500指数的成分股在过去的50年间发生了巨大变化，在1970年时，工业股和原材料股占比为26%，而今天的占比已经下滑到10.6%。相比之下，科技股和金融股的占比则从13%一路扩张到了今天的42%。

所以，如果9月降息概率激增，那么与利率敏感度极高的科技和金融股，是否将推动标普冲上6,000点大关呢？

SPX500 Daily

技术分析方面，标普500指数（SPX500）仍然在延续安德鲁干草叉形态上行，并且一直保持在轨道头部，是充满上行动能的体现。

NAS100 H1

纳指（NAS100）方面，同样受到科技股的利好推动，股指一样保持在上行轨道中运行，交易者可参考轨道上下壁之间的波动进行震荡交易。

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