MHMarkets：2024年3月21日 经济亮点

日期：2024年3月21日

经济亮点（格林威治标准时间+8）

下午4:15

欧元 法国制造业PMI初值

欧元 法国服务业PMI初值

下午4:30

瑞士 国家银行货币政策评估

瑞士 国家银行政策利率

欧元 德国制造业PMI初值

欧元 德国服务业PMI初值

下午5:00

瑞士 国家银行新闻发布会

下午5:30

英镑 制造业PMI初值

英镑 服务业PMI初值

下午8:00

英镑 货币政策摘要

英镑 货币政策委员会官方银行利率投票

英镑 官方银行利率

下午8:30

美元 失业救济金申请

下午9:45

美元 制造业PMI初值

美元 服务业PMI初值

市场概览

全球市场回顾

On Wednesday, following the Fed's interest rate decision, bets on interest rate cuts increased, causing the U.S. dollar index to plummet, closing down 0.40% at 103.4. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield ended at 4.2730%, and the 2-year yield, most sensitive to Fed policy rates, closed at 4.6040%.

Bitcoin strengthened continuously after the Fed's interest rate decision, returning above the $67,000 mark, with a 9.03% increase to $67,628 by 5:30 today.

Due to renewed expectations for Fed rate cuts and a weakening U.S. dollar, spot gold surged, approaching the $2,190 mark, and closed up 1.32% at $2,185.80 per ounce; spot silver ended up 2.71% at $25.57 per ounce.

Concerns about demand continued to pressure oil prices, with WTI crude closing down 1.31% at $81.36 per barrel, and Brent crude ending down 1.19% at $86.13 per barrel.

U.S. stock indices ended higher across the board, with the Dow up 1.03%, the S&P 500 up 0.89%, and the Nasdaq up 1.25%, all setting new closing highs. Astera (ALAB.O) surged 73.42% on its first trading day, nearing a market value of ten billion dollars. Pinduoduo (PDD.O) initially jumped 15%, closing up 3.52%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index ended up 1.65%, with Tencent Music (TME.N) up 5.8%, iQIYI (IQ.O) up 5.32%, and ZTO Express (ZTO.N) up 4.29%.

European stocks ended mixed, with Germany's DAX 30 up 0.15%, the UK's FTSE 100 down 0.01%, and the Stoxx Europe 50 down 0.15%.

The Hang Seng Index opened up 29 points at 16,559, later fluctuating and briefly dipping over a hundred points to a low of 16,430, but gradually rebounded in the afternoon. At the close, the Hang Seng was up 0.08%, and the Tech Index was up 0.65%, with total turnover at HK$85.3 billion. Sectors such as entertainment, publishing, and aviation logistics strengthened, while domestic retail, catering, and agricultural products saw declines.

The A-share market fluctuated narrowly, with the Shanghai Composite showing strength. At close, the Shanghai Composite was up 0.55%, the Shenzhen Component up 0.21%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.12%. Sectors such as Sora concepts, short drama games, and low-altitude economy strengthened, while very few sectors like liquor production and cultivated diamonds saw declines. Over 3,700 stocks advanced, with transaction volume nearing RMB 1 trillion.

市场亮点：

· 美联储将基准利率维持在5.25%到5.50%之间。

· 鲍威尔表示，在不久的将来放缓缩减资产负债表是适当的。

· 日经新闻：日本银行可能考虑在7月或10月进行下一次利率上调。

· 市场新闻：美国司法部将对苹果提起反垄断诉讼。

· 马斯克的脑-电脑接口公司使首位患者能够通过思考来下棋。

· 习近平：从更高起点，扎实推动中部地区崛起。

· 腾讯控股计划至少将其股份回购计划翻倍。

· 拼多多去年第四季度的收入同比增长了123%。

机构观点：

1. 美国银行（BofA）

预计英格兰银行即将公布的政策决定将采取谨慎且一致的路径，变动幅度不大。英镑凭借有利的套利交易显示出强劲势头，看起来将在利好的4月份保持这一势头。即使近期市场有所调整，围绕英镑的正面情绪仍然强劲，这得益于对英国经济前景日益乐观的预期。

2. 法国农业信贷银行

法国农业信贷银行认为，现在是在美联储决策前购买美元的好时机。他们预计，中央银行的预测和鲍威尔主席的言论可能倾向于更谨慎、不那么宽松的方式。这一预期的转变，加上美元相对于其利率优势的当前低估，为美元可能升值做好了准备。特别是如果会议结果降低了投资者对风险的热情，这可能进一步促进美元价值的复苏。

3. 加拿大帝国商业银行（CIBC）

美联储最近的决定和预测强调了对货币宽松的审慎策略，展现了对经济扩张的积极展望和管理通胀的战术方法。CIBC指出，美联储对经济条件变化的响应性，表明了它在实现长期通胀目标的同时保持整体经济稳定的谨慎和计算过的路径。

4. 三菱东京日联银行（MUFG）

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）今天的决定是日元的一个关键时刻，可能影响东京对抗日元过度疲软的策略。MUFG的分析指出，一个中性的决定可能抑制美元的急剧上涨，而一个意外严格的立场可能导致日元的大幅贬值，可能促使东京采取措施。这种情况凸显了中央银行在全球货币政策调整期间，努力在影响金融衍生品市场的微妙平衡中寻求平衡。