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AC资本市场:美国失业率上升促进降息预期,加拿大GDP下滑引发加元大跌

2024-03-04 01:03:46




美国失业率上升,通货膨胀飙升


美国失业人数为215K,高于预期的209K和上月的202K。初请失业救济人数较上周修订后的结果增加了13,000人。 


这一疲弱的结果与核心PCE物价指数结果上涨至0.4%相吻合,高于上月的0.1%,有助于抵消对美元的伤害。美联储认为核心PCE涵盖的范围比CPI更广,更好地反映了美国消费者的支出模式。随着通货膨胀率上升至0.4%,并不令人惊讶,因为市场在看到最近核心CPI和PPI结果上升后已经预期了更高的利率。


根据这一消息,我们可以看到USDJPY从150反弹,并回落到上升的旗形图案。价格看起来可能会测试151.50的极端高位,形成潜在的三重顶形态。


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USDJPY Weekly


EURUSD图表如下所示,显示出一个熊市的针状内部棒,看起来可能会下跌测试1.0750区域和100 SMA(黑线)以寻找潜在的支撑。


2.png 

EURUSD Weekly


加拿大GDP下降,美元兑加元飙升


加拿大GDP从上月的0.2%下降至0%,预期为0.2%。这一负面结果主要是由于企业投资下降,过去七个季度中有六次下降。同样,尽管新建筑活动增加,住房投资在过去七个季度中已经第六次下降。 


 3.png

USDCAD weekly


消息公布后,我们可以看到美元兑加元迅速上涨,因为它在下方显示的1.35枢轴区域找到了强劲的需求。价格看起来有望测试1.3650枢轴区域,这是横向价格范围的中间,可能会充当阻力。





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