AC资本市场：标普指数新高在即，红海局势改善导致黄金下滑

周五凌晨，美国股市继续沐浴在圣诞行情的乐观气氛中，三大股指也继续收涨，其中道琼斯平均工业指数收涨101.28点（+0.27%）、纳斯达克100指数微涨0.02%，而标普500指数则距离历史最高水平仅差0.3%。

SPX500Roll H4

技术分析方面，标普500指数（SPX500Roll）从10月27日启动爆发式上涨至今，已经累计上涨了近17%，其中虽然出现了多个波段的行情，但是整体向上的动能相当充沛。如果市场保持目前态势，那么标普将有机会追随道指和纳指，在近期创下新高。

SPX500Roll H4

除了今年末出现的强劲圣诞行情以外，近日红海局势的改善也缓解了市场的担忧——就在几周前，胡赛武装对过往红海的商船进行了袭击，并劫持了其中部分商船，引发了国际市场对中东局势恶化的担忧。但是，就在本周，来自荷兰的全球海运巨头马士基宣布，其大部分货轮将继续通过红海和苏伊士运河进行运输，这一表态也立刻为市场带来了局势缓解的乐观希望。

受此影响，避险资产黄金（XAUUSD）价格在持续大幅上涨后终于出现了回落，在周四冲高至每盎司2,088美元之后开始下行，并在不久后跌破了本月中旬形成的上行趋势线，收于2,067美元。

XAUUSD H1

值得交易者注意的是，虽然黄金出现了下破，但是红海局势仍未出现决定性反转。另外，用于计价黄金的美元仍然处于弱势，所以利好黄金的基本面因素依旧存在。交易者可参考下方的第二条上行趋势线，判断是否有反弹的机会。

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