AC资本市场:加拿大经济衰退致加元大跌,美国私营企业就业人数下降
加拿大国经济陷入衰退,美元对加拿大元汇率(USDCAD)急剧上升
根据周二Statistics Canada的数据,加拿大GDP为0%,低于0.1%的预测,这将经济置于轻微的衰退之中。第三季度GDP再次萎缩,使经济满足了技术性衰退的要求,因为第二季度GDP也下降。
在数据发布后,CIBC Capital Markets的经济学家Andrew Grantham表示,可能需要在2024年降息,以“避免我所描述的真正的经济衰退或更深层次的经济活动衰退”。
从下图中可以看出,数据发布后USDCAD迅速上涨超过0.3%。正如下图所示,价格突破了1.38的支撑阻力,找到了1.39的阻力区域和上升趋势线。

美元对加拿大元(USDCAD)日线图
此外,我们还可以看到,周二发布后GBPCAD上涨,因为价格成功收盘在1.68的价格支撑点之上,如下图所示。此外,价格在上升趋势线和200 SMA的支持下反弹,如下图所示。

英镑对加拿大元(GBPCAD)日线图
美国就业变化大幅下降,导致美元兑日元(USDJPY)迅速下跌
本月美国私营企业就业人数从113K下降到89K,低于预测的149K。这一结果表明,尽管工资最近有所增加,但工作需求开始减缓。有趣的是,餐饮和旅馆业,这两个曾推动疫情复苏的重要领域,自2022年初以来增加的职位数量最少。
USDJPY在发布后迅速下跌,如下图所示,价格在1.51水平和下降趋势线处找到了阻力。此外,新闻发布后出现了大规模的交易量激增,价格迅速下跌。

美元兑日元(USDJPY)H1
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