AC资本市场：加拿大通胀数据导致加元大跌、纽元兑美元急促下行

2023-10-18 01:10:05

加拿大中位数CPI下降得令人担忧，加拿大元兑大多数G10货币贬值

加拿大中位数CPI在周二为3.8%，较上个月的4.1%以及4%的预测下降。修正后的CPI也从上个月的3.9%下降到本月的3.7%，表明通货膨胀速度超出预期地减缓。其中，汽油价格上涨7.5%是增长的重要推动因素，而8月份的涨幅仅为0.8%。

此外，随着俄乌和以哈冲突的持续，上周布伦特原油上涨了超过7%，暗示着未来汽油价格将不可避免地进一步上涨。随着中位数和修正后的CPI下降，我们可以看到加元兑大多数主要货币贬值，因为市场预期央行将进一步加息。下面的图表显示了欧元本周兑加元汇率上涨，因为市场对加拿大央行下周的政策决定保持谨慎。

欧元加元日线图

在这里，我们可以看到与美元兑加元汇率上涨相关的情况，因为市场等待加拿大经济未来几周的重大消息。

美元加元日线图

新西兰CPI降至两年低点，对NZDUSD汇率产生极为令人担忧的影响

新西兰CPI季度增长从1.1%升至1.8%，低于1.9%的预测。然而，年度通货膨胀率大幅下降至5.6%，达到两年低点。根据经济学家的预期，年度通货膨胀率应为5.9%，而新西兰储备银行则预测为6%。因此，投资者对进一步加息失去信心，新西兰储备银行表示政策决策可能需要在持续一段时间内保持收紧。从下面的NZDUSD图表可以看出，周一公布季度CPI后，纽元兑美元汇率下降。

NZDUSD日线图

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