AC资本市场：美联储年会结束，澳元反弹开始？

美国资本市场在周一交易日再次录得上涨，而强势的美元在年会期间冲破104.430高位后出现回落。目前，虽然美国国债收益率仍处于08年金融危机时期的最高水平，但是美元的本轮涨幅似乎已经开始消退，因为全球投资者显然已经在为本周的一系列重磅美国经济数据计价。

在汇市方面，这一现象也相当明显——欧元兑美元（EURUSD）和英镑兑美元（GBPUSD）已经大幅回温，而澳元兑美元（AUDUSD）则在周一的零售数据超预期之后出现反弹（零售数据前值为-0.8%，本次实际值为+0.5%），体现出了澳洲经济的韧性。

AUDUSD 1h

但是，在看到AUDUSD反弹的同时，交易者也应当注意澳元在本周和下周所面临的签证挑战——美国消费者信心指数、第二季度GDP、PCE通胀指数以及周五的非农数据。如果澳元能够平稳过关，那么下周二的澳联储利率决议，或将成为最大难关，因为目前市场预期显示澳联储（RBA）将大概率再次维持利率不变，从而无法为澳元提供上行动能。

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