Mai hui MHmarkets: June 29, 2023-MHM European Perspective
Market Overview
Spot gold tumbled to a new low of nearly three and a half months to $1902.70 per ounce in Asia on Thursday (June 29) and is now trading near $1,904.19 per ounce. Gold came under pressure as the dollar refreshed a near two-week high following another hawkish speech by Fed Chair Powell overnight, which reinforced market expectations for a Fed rate hike in July.
Mr. Powell said most Fed policy makers still see two more rate increases this year and that he didn't see inflation returning to the Fed's 2% target until 2025.
According to CME's Fedwatch tool, investors now expect an 81% chance that the Fed will raise rates by a quarter point in July.
Market participants now await data on USD Initial Jobless Claims, USD GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1) and USD PCE Price Index (MAY) due on Friday that will publish later today. Also, keep an eye on Fed officials' speeches.
U.S. crude oil traded in a narrow range, currently trading near $69.30 per barrel. Oil prices rebounded almost 2% overnight from a near two-week low after a report showed USD Crude Oil Stock Change fell for a second straight week and by more than expected. Still, bulls remain wary that further interest rate hikes by central banks could crip growth and global fuel demand, as well as underperforming Chinese economic data.
Crude inventories plunged by 9.6m barrels in the week to June 23, against analysts' forecasts of a 1.8m drop and after a 2.8m drop in the same period last year, data from the US Energy Information Administration showed. The inventory decline last week was also larger than the average decline over the five years 2018-2022.
"Overall, very strong numbers that go against the arguments of those who have been saying the market is oversupplied," said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. "This report could put a floor under [oil prices]."
This trading day, watch for USD GDP Growth Rate Final (Q1), USD Initial Jobless Claims and Fed officials' speeches.
MHMarkets strategy is only for reference and not for investment advice. Please carefully read the statement at the end of the text. The following strategy will be updated at 15:00 on June 29, Beijing time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1960
Overall Oscillation Range: 1730-1756-1780-1801-1817-1833-1856-1873-1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1960-1978-1985-1998-2007-2016-2033-2046-2057-2066-2077-2089-2097-2100
In the subsequent period of spot gold, 1889-1903-1911-1929-1937-1951-1960 can be operated as the bull and bear range; High throw low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on June 29. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9
Overall Oscillation Range: 19.7-20.1-20.6-21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9-24.5-25.3-26.1-26.6-27.3
In the subsequent period of spot silver, 21.5-22.3-23.1-23.9 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on June 29. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 65.8-66.9-67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3
Overall Oscillation Range: 62.1-63.7-64.5-65.8-66.9-67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3-73.1-73.8-75.1-77.9-78.5-79.9-80.7-82.3-83.5-85.3-87.3-89.1
In the subsequent period of Crude Oil, 65.8-66.9-67.3-68.9-70.1-71.2-72.3 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on June 29. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220
Overall Oscillation Range: 1.0290-1.0360-1.0460-1.0570-1.0690-1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220-1.1303
In the subsequent period of EURUSD, 1.0755-1.0830-1.0950-1.1157-1.1220 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on June 29. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
Intraday Oscillation Range: 1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300
Overall Oscillation Range: 1.1610-1.1830-1.1920-1.2030-1.2135-1.2250-1.2375-1.2400-1.2470-1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300-1.30000-1.30600
In the subsequent period of GBPUSD, 1.25460-1.26505-1.27000-1.28200-1.29300 can be operated as the bull and bear range. High throw and low suction in the range, chase up and kill down outside the range!
Note: The above strategy was updated at 15:00 on June 29. This policy is a daytime policy. Please pay attention to the policy release time.
